2018 Phoenix Real Estate Market Outlook

With a few months under our belt, here is our 2018 Phoenix real estate market outlook. First, what’s been going on so far.

As of today, there are 17,578 properties actively listed for sale, 12,279 under contract and 10,849 sold since January first–what does this mean? It means we are off to a good start in terms of activity as compared to last year.  In 2017, there were 7,986 sales per month on average.  When the final sales figures hit for February, we’ll have far eclipsed that average figure–keep in mind that our market goes through cycles throughout the year and that activity typically peaks from January to end of April and then does not pick up again until the fall or even end of fall.

The average sold price this year is approximately $311, 624 although when averaged across the entire year, the median price for Maricopa County will likely be closer to $250K.

This chart shows the Median Sold Price for February 2017 to January 2018–the median sale price is up +8.7% from one year ago:

One figure that really points to the type of market we’re in is the average days on market (ADOM)–the ADOM for sold listings this year is currently 75–up slightly from December. The ADOM for active listings is 113.

Here’s how the Average Days on Market has changed over the past year:

New construction across the country is expected to be up several percentage points and we expect the same in Arizona–perhaps more so than in other parts of the country. Two hurricanes in the past 6-8 months have left parts of the country reeling and we’ll likely see more movement in terms of incoming residents because of the crazy weather our country has recently experienced. Another factor that leaves us bullish about the 2018 Phoenix real estate market is less concern about employment–the economy is clipping along at a nice pace at the moment and over the last five years, the Phoenix metro area has added nearly a quarter million jobs.

Current mortgage rates are bit higher than last year–currently the national average is around 4.52% for a 30-year fixed mortgage. A sub 4% mortgage can still be obtained on a 15-year fixed or 5/1 ARM with excellent credit, assets, etc. Millenials are less cautious now and we’ll likely see more becoming homeowners this year. One concern for 2018 will be the ongoing housing shortage. In Maricopa County, inventory is still low for some price points and areas while other areas and price points have excess inventory.

Barring something catastrophic, we expect the remainder of 2018 to be strong in terms of demand–this demand will likely lead to rising home prices in Arizona and across the nation.  If you have a question about a property, community or the Arizona real estate market, please contact one of our outstanding agents or send us note–we’d be honored to assist you.

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